EuroCham Business Confidence Index Q3 2025: Confidence Climbs as Reforms Gain Traction amid Global Headwinds

14 October 2025

[Ho Chi Minh City, 14 October 2025] The European Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam (EuroCham) officially unveiled the Q3 2025 edition of the Business Confidence Index (BCI), which reveals a renewed surge of optimism among European firms operating in Vietnam. The index climbed to 66.5, surpassing pre-tariffs level and reaching its highest in three years – showcasing resilience and adaptability amid global headwinds and evolving U.S. tariff pressures.

“This steady confidence is particularly striking in a world defined by volatility and uncertainty – where the ripple effects of geopolitics, technological shifts, and climate change are rewriting trade and investment strategies across continents,” remarked EuroCham Chairman Bruno Jaspaert.

The BCI Q3 2025 report, conducted by Decision Lab, goes beyond macroeconomic sentiment to capture structural shifts quietly reshaping Vietnam’s business environment: forward-looking reforms in visa and work permit policies, growing momentum for green investment, and the ongoing digitalisation of administrative procedures. Together, these changes reflect how European investors perceive Vietnam’s future: full of promise, yet not without friction.

Click here to explore the full BCI Q3 report: English version | Vietnamese version.

Navigating Global and Domestic Disruption

The shifting trade landscape is beginning to leave its mark. As the U.S. implements new tariff measures and global supply chains realign, 31% of surveyed businesses reported a net negative impact on their financial performance – a sizable adjustment compared to 15% in Q2 2025. Interestingly, the share of firms seeing a net positive impact also followed a similar trend, rising to 9% from 5% in Q2, reflecting the potential upside for companies able to reposition themselves amid global trade re-routing.

Despite these adjustments, relocation remains limited: only 3% are considering moving operations out of Vietnam, while another 3% are considering relocating into or within the country, reaffirming Vietnam’s reputation as a resilient and reliable base for production and investment.

While clarity around U.S. “transshipment” rules and future trade deals remains limited, most firms report no major change to their investment plans or operations. Regulatory compliance, market dynamics, and sourcing strategies have become “slightly more challenging,” but few see these headwinds as strong enough to alter their long-term commitment to Vietnam.

Chairman Jaspaert observed: “The pressures are now materialising, but they remain proportionate to our earlier findings. What’s remarkable is the leap in sentiment: 80% of respondents are optimistic about their prospects over the next five years, and 76% would recommend Vietnam as an investment destination. It affirms that Vietnam’s structural story still holds strong. The recent upgrade of Vietnam’s stock market classification by FTSE Russell – from Frontier to Secondary Emerging Market status – underwrites the findings of our BCI survey. It signals growing confidence from international investors and recognises Vietnam’s rising importance as an investment destination for future business.”

This renewed confidence aligns with Vietnam’s broader economic ambitions. Nearly half of respondents (42%) believe that Vietnam will reach its ambitious GDP growth target of 8.3–8.5% for 2025, while 23% remain neutral and 35% express some reservations. The General Statistics Office’s most recent data – reporting GDP in Q3 increased by 8.23% year-on-year – underscores Vietnam’s robust momentum.

Decision Lab CEO Thue Quist Thomsen noted: “While neutrality still dominates in the short-term outlook, sentiment becomes distinctly more positive when firms discuss the future. Notably, 68% expect economic stabilisation and improvement in the next quarter, up 18 percentage points since Q2 2025 – a clear indication that businesses are expecting to close the year on a stronger footing.”

Administrative Reform: Progress and Remaining Frictions

Administrative inefficiency remains one of the most significant challenges facing European businesses in Vietnam, with 65% citing procedural burdens as an obstacle. Tax-related procedures – particularly VAT refunds – continue to cause frustration, while inconsistent interpretations of work-permit rules between provinces create operational uncertainty.

However, a major step forward was made in August 2025 when the Government introduced three new decrees designed to modernise visa and work-permit regulations and make the process more predictable.

Decree 219 empowers local authorities to issue work permits, enables online applications, reduces experience requirements for foreign experts in prioritised and emerging fields, expands categories eligible for exemptions, and simplifies paperwork. Decree 221 introduces a limited-term visa exemption for select groups of foreigners contributing to Vietnam’s socio-economic development, reflecting a more flexible approach to attracting international talent. Meanwhile, Decree 229 expands Vietnam’s visa-exemption policy to include 18 EU member states, further strengthening the link between European and Vietnamese mobility.

Almost half (48%) of the firms surveyed reported that these policy changes have already made a positive difference in their operations, while 42% said the impacts are yet to materialise, often due to transitional administrative issues. Nevertheless, these decrees represent a substantial leap toward more open, business-friendly mobility regulations, echoing EuroCham’s long-standing recommendations in its annual Whitebook publications.

Chairman Jaspaert emphasised: “As Vietnam aspires to become a high-income, developed nation within the next two decades, talent mobility and skills transfer must be placed at the heart of this journey. These reforms are critical to ensuring that international expertise can flow freely to where it is most needed, unlocking innovation and strengthening Vietnam’s private-sector capacity.”

Green Transformation: From Vision to Investment Reality

As climate change takes effects across the globe, green transformation has become a central pillar in both European and Vietnamese policy agendas – and the BCI shows this vision is beginning to take tangible shape among businesses.

Half of respondents are now aware of the EU Green Deal, although only 7% have directly engaged with its mechanisms. Awareness of Vietnam’s National Green Growth Strategy (2021–2030) stands at 43%, with nearly one in five firms actively benefitting from related programmes supporting energy efficiency and innovation.

Meanwhile, the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), due to take effect in 2026, is already prompting companies to review their supply chains. Over one-third of respondents are aware or exploring compliance requirements, and 11% have begun aligning sourcing practices with EU sustainability standards – a move that will reshape global manufacturing, agriculture, and forestry value chains toward greater traceability.

Financially, the green economy is gaining traction. At the Global Gateway Forum 2025 held in Brussels on 9 October, Commissioner Jozef Síkela met with Vietnam’s Deputy Prime Minister Bùi Thanh Sơn to reaffirm the EU’s commitment to Vietnam’s green transition. Through the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), Team Europe has committed €2.8 billion to decarbonise Vietnam’s power sector and modernise grid infrastructure. Beyond this, the EU Global Gateway initiative – mobilising €300 billion worldwide by 2027 – is directing strategic investments into clean energy, transport, and digital infrastructure across Asia, with Vietnam positioned as a key partner in this regional transformation.

Yet, awareness and accessibility remain limited. While these programmes offer substantial funding for green innovation and environmentally responsible business models, many firms are still unsure how to access them. EuroCham continues to advocate for greater visibility and clearer guidance to ensure Vietnam’s private sector can fully tap into this growing ecosystem of sustainable finance.

At the enterprise level, about one-quarter of European firms in Vietnam have implemented full-scale green initiatives within the past two years. ESG reporting and certification lead adoption, followed closely by energy-efficiency upgrades through digital monitoring systems and waste-reduction programmes. Circular-economy initiatives are expanding, with 37% of companies having launched carbon-reduction or offsetting projects. However, renewable energy adoption remains a major challenge due to grid constraints and limited access to direct power purchase agreements.

Despite these hurdles, the returns are compelling. 42% of firms report improved customer trust, market access, or brand value; 39% cite operational efficiency gains from lower energy use; and 32% record measurable financial benefits. As Chairman Jaspaert summarised, “Sustainability is no longer a compliance checkbox – it’s becoming the new engine of competitiveness.”

This shift in mindset reflects a shared priority between the EU and Vietnam: ensuring that businesses integrate environmentally conscious strategies into their models so that rising revenues do not come at the expense of finite global resources. In this regard, the EU recognises EuroCham’s pivotal role in spearheading key dialogues through its flagship platforms: the Green Economy Forum & Exhibition (GEFE) and the Green Economy Forum (GEF). These sister events alternate each year, rotating themes while staying true to their core mission: creating high-level, result-oriented discussions and showcasing concrete practices to build a greener future.

EuroCham remains deeply committed to driving these priorities forward. Through initiatives such as the Whitebook, Business Confidence Index, and the upcoming Green Economy Forum (GEF) 2025 – scheduled for 27 November in Hanoi – EuroCham continues to convene government, business, and civil society in dialogue. This year’s theme, “Shaping Changes – Building Futures,” will explore how policy reform, innovation, and international collaboration can deliver prosperity and sustainability hand in hand.

Looking Ahead: Reform and Resilience

The Q3 2025 BCI ultimately reaffirms Vietnam’s position as one of the most promising destinations for European investment in Asia. Yet, as the world grows more volatile and unpredictable, optimism must be anchored in continued reform and resilience. Respondents consistently stress that Vietnam’s long-term competitiveness depends on regulatory predictability, consistency across provinces, and efficient administrative procedures.

The BCI findings – which have tracked European business confidence in Vietnam since 2011 – were among the key references during EuroCham’s high-level engagement with H.E. Mr. Maroš Šefčovič, EU Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security, during his visit to Hanoi in late September. The meeting, which brought together European and Vietnamese policymakers, reaffirmed the EU’s confidence in Vietnam as a strategic partner in Southeast Asia.

Commissioner Šefčovič noted: “Vietnam is a key partner for the EU in Southeast Asia, and EuroCham’s on-the-ground insights are vital to ensure that both sides benefit from this relationship in a balanced manner. Our meeting today also provided valuable perspectives to identify new areas for trade and investment cooperation in areas where our strategic interests converge.”

Chairman Jaspaert echoed this sentiment, noting: “Growth and revenue today do not guarantee success tomorrow, unless businesses and nations work together to future-proof themselves. This is where the EU and Vietnam truly see eye-to-eye: we both recognise the importance of diversifying, strengthening, and elevating our partnerships to grow together.”

EU Ambassador to Vietnam, Julien Guerrier, added: “Vietnam’s growth trajectory is impressive, yet there is scope to unlock further the huge potential of the EU–Vietnam partnership with predictable and transparent rules in line with international standards, and the involvement of the business community in the preparation of new regulations. EuroCham’s role in conveying the insights of European businesses to contribute to accelerate Vietnam’s green and digital transition, is indispensable to our shared success.”

About EuroCham Vietnam

Founded in 1998, the European Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam (EuroCham) has established itself as the unified voice of the European business community in Vietnam. With offices in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, we represent a diverse spectrum of companies, ranging from small and medium-sized enterprises to multinational corporations. EuroCham plays a crucial role in shaping policy dialogues, fostering bilateral trade and investment, and fortifying economic ties between Europe and Vietnam, particularly within the framework of the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA). 

EuroCham Vietnam boasts a substantial membership base comprising over 1,400 companies, solidifying its position as one of the largest foreign chambers operating in Vietnam. We function as the “chamber of chambers,” encompassing nine prominent national European business associations in Vietnam, which include: 

EuroCham’s diversified influence is underpinned by our extensive network of 19 specialised Sector Committees. Serving as think tanks within their respective industries, these committees provide invaluable expertise, steer policy recommendations, and stimulate industry-specific dialogues. This organisational framework guarantees that the concerns and viewpoints of diverse sectors are actively considered, thereby moulding EuroCham’s cross-sectoral agenda and magnifying its overall influence.

For more information about EuroCham, visit: www.eurochamvn.org. 

For media enquiries, please contact:

EuroCham Vietnam Media & Communications Officer
Ms. Tram Hoang – tram.hoang@eurochamvn.org